1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	328478	Dungeons & Dragons: Dungeon Scrawlers – Heroes of Undermountain	Current	42	6.72	5.52	0.0
			Estimated	300	7.52	5.79	1.7

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
In Dungeons & Dragons: Dungeon Scrawlers – Heroes of Undermountain, you and other adventurers are drawn together to delve into Undermountain, an immense underground of dungeons created by the Mad Mage, Halaster Blackcloak. Use your markers to trace your path, defeating monsters, casting spells, connecting artifact fragments, and collecting shiny treasure on the way! The round ends when one player defeats that dungeon's mighty boss, so you have only a few minutes to collect as much loot as possible. The player with the most points after exploring three dungeons wins! At the beginning of each game, players pick one of five characters, each with a thematic ability that helps them collect one type of points more easily as they draw their line through the maze. Normally monsters or treasure need to be entirely covered with marker to be collected, but rogues need only to touch treasure, while barbarians need only to fill in the monsters' heads to defeat them! While anyone can cast a spell by tracing an intricate pattern, a wizard needs only to draw a small circle! Dungeon Scrawlers contains ten unique mazes of increasing complexity, introducing new challenges as you go. These include portals, locked doors, multiple bosses, time limits, and more! With multiple paths through each maze, and over one hundred different three-maze combinations, you'll never have to stop scrawling! —description from the publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/328478

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Dungeons & Dragons: Dungeon Scrawlers – Heroes of Undermountain? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Dungeons & Dragons: Dungeon Scrawlers – Heroes of Undermountain. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Dungeons & Dragons: Dungeon Scrawlers – Heroes of Undermountain. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	328478	Dungeons & Dragons: Dungeon Scrawlers – Heroes of Undermountain	1.00	5.52	6.72	1.70	42
1	2000	988	Zapp Zerapp	0.82	5.63	6.11	1.30	455
2	1999	403	Elk Fest	0.80	5.83	6.15	1.05	1,833
3	1995	321	The Mole in the Hole	0.77	5.78	6.30	1.28	972
4	2012	178494	Dutch Blitz: Blue Expansion Pack	0.76	5.77	7.25	1.50	343
5	2019	259830	Hedgehog Roll	0.75	5.66	6.66	1.00	290
6	2008	38504	Hurry'Cup!	0.75	5.49	5.48	1.30	321
7	2014	76085	Unauthorized Production	0.74	5.52	6.04	1.00	56
8	1971	5232	Gnip Gnop	0.74	5.43	4.75	1.06	164
9	1986	1768	Fireball Island	0.74	5.87	6.45	1.34	1,627
10	1995	150	PitchCar	0.73	7.00	7.27	1.13	10,190
11	2004	12422	All Wound Up	0.72	5.40	4.90	1.29	305
12	2015	171129	Spinderella	0.72	5.92	6.48	1.20	1,461
13	2003	14254	PitchCar Mini	0.71	6.31	6.96	1.14	2,171
14	2004	24985	Mouse Trap	0.71	5.27	4.20	1.15	373
15	1963	2679	Mouse Trap	0.71	4.60	4.12	1.11	2,884
16	2017	218161	Pit Crew	0.71	5.75	6.47	1.20	607
17	2003	8542	Turbo	0.71	5.47	4.65	1.29	67
18	2020	327788	Bluey: Shadowlands Board Game	0.71	5.47	3.40	1.00	31
19	2004	12005	Around the World in 80 Days	0.69	6.16	6.55	1.80	3,179
20	1970	1613	Ghost Castle	0.69	5.43	5.42	1.12	1,094
21	2020	321757	Monza 20th Anniversary	0.68	5.57	7.08	1.25	81
22	2008	38548	Fast Flowing Forest Fellers	0.68	5.99	6.51	1.53	1,604
23	2010	72242	Bridgetown Races	0.66	5.54	6.13	2.20	131
24	1992	8636	The Grape Escape	0.66	5.47	5.28	1.20	198
25	1970	5463	Mind Maze	0.66	5.50	5.64	1.40	63

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Dungeons & Dragons: Dungeon Scrawlers – Heroes of Undermountain while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	328478	Dungeons & Dragons: Dungeon Scrawlers – Heroes of Undermountain	5.52	1.00	5.52	6.72	1.70	42
1	1995	150	PitchCar	5.12	0.73	7.00	7.27	1.13	10,190
2	1999	403	Elk Fest	4.65	0.80	5.83	6.15	1.05	1,833
3	2000	988	Zapp Zerapp	4.64	0.82	5.63	6.11	1.30	455
4	2003	14254	PitchCar Mini	4.51	0.71	6.31	6.96	1.14	2,171
5	1995	321	The Mole in the Hole	4.44	0.77	5.78	6.30	1.28	972
6	2012	178494	Dutch Blitz: Blue Expansion Pack	4.36	0.76	5.77	7.25	1.50	343
7	1986	1768	Fireball Island	4.35	0.74	5.87	6.45	1.34	1,627
8	2004	12005	Around the World in 80 Days	4.27	0.69	6.16	6.55	1.80	3,179
9	2015	171129	Spinderella	4.25	0.72	5.92	6.48	1.20	1,461
10	2019	259830	Hedgehog Roll	4.24	0.75	5.66	6.66	1.00	290
11	2016	199478	Flamme Rouge	4.19	0.58	7.26	7.53	1.70	14,544
12	2008	38504	Hurry'Cup!	4.11	0.75	5.49	5.48	1.30	321
13	2014	76085	Unauthorized Production	4.11	0.74	5.52	6.04	1.00	56
14	2017	218161	Pit Crew	4.08	0.71	5.75	6.47	1.20	607
15	2008	38548	Fast Flowing Forest Fellers	4.06	0.68	5.99	6.51	1.53	1,604
16	1971	5232	Gnip Gnop	4.04	0.74	5.43	4.75	1.06	164
17	2007	28023	Jamaica	3.97	0.58	6.89	7.06	1.65	17,595
18	2019	277597	Fast Sloths	3.96	0.64	6.15	7.14	2.16	1,132
19	2008	38054	Snow Tails	3.95	0.59	6.64	6.97	2.05	6,215
20	2000	826	Cartagena	3.92	0.61	6.45	6.69	1.60	7,649
21	2016	180680	Automobiles	3.89	0.59	6.62	7.25	2.20	3,104
22	2004	12422	All Wound Up	3.89	0.72	5.40	4.90	1.29	305
23	2020	327788	Bluey: Shadowlands Board Game	3.87	0.71	5.47	3.40	1.00	31
24	2003	8542	Turbo	3.87	0.71	5.47	4.65	1.29	67
25	2006	27225	Bananagrams	3.87	0.63	6.18	6.37	1.32	9,771

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

## Warning in abbreviate(neighbor_name, 60): abbreviate used with non-ASCII chars

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	328478	Dungeons & Dragons: Dungeon Scrawlers – Heroes of Undermountain	WizKids (I)	Vangelis Bagiartakis	Anthony Cournoyer	Action / Dexterity	Setting: Dungeons & Dragons	Line Drawing
				Konstantinos Karagiannis		Fantasy		Multiple Maps
						Maze		Point to Point Movement
						Real-time		Race
								Real-Time
								Variable Player Powers

Individual Game Analysis